Erie Forecast September 24, 2024 4:15 PM

Weather Forecast For September 29, 2024

Written By Andrew Ditch Written on: September 29, 2024 4:15 PM Updated: September 30, 2024 12:46 PM

Today's Video 

Because of my developmental disabilities and autism, I used my Augmentative Alternative Communication Device to make my forecast for more professional and easier to understand information. 

Today's Detailed Text

Erie, PA Weather News 

Erie PA forecast 

This week is going to include rain showers and fall like temperatures late in the week. Overall a fairly quiet pattern. 

Sunday Night 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent. Actual low temperature of 64. East Winds of 5 MPH. Cloudy Weather. 

Monday 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon is correct. Current temperature at 12 PM is 73 and East Northeast at9 MPH so far is correct. 

Monday Night 

Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast 7 winds around 10 MPH.  Actual Low 64. Mostly cloudy skies. Northeast winds around 7. 

Tuesday 

Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain. Weather as of 12 pm. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Current partly sunny.  Temperature at 12 pm is 71.  South winds 8 to 10. 

Tuesday Night.

Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. 

Wednesday 

Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.

 How I made this forecast 

I wanted to add this information so you can understand how I got Mt forecast. This way you can understand my mind set with this. I am in a group home.  I want to show you my special interest. I really hope to keep doing this long term and regularly. 

GFS Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM

NAMNST Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM

HHHR Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM

I used GFS Long Range Forecast Model to help me look at the Long term pattern, the fronts, the colder and warmer air, and national forecast to make my synopsis part.

Then I added this information to the models below. I made my forecast off the information from the HHHR and NAMNST and NAM. My past experiences with forecast models I was able to say I didn't agree with the NAM or NAMNST for tonight forecast. I agree with the HHHR with the GFS and NAM combined. The HHHS was not in agreement with the fine stuff and temps for Monday to Tuesday. So I used the NAM, NAMNST and GFS and RAP models for my Monday, Monday Night, and Tuesday Night. All the models were not in agreement with Tuesday day time weather or temperature. 

My Tuesday day time forecast I went to my local NWS page and I got more confused by another input. I didn't know what to do. So I remembered that weather.cod.edu uses on the legacy site the compre models and run times. I used that to make my forecast based on that. Also, to see if I was right and to help me learn.

HHHR this is one forecast model 

 

Sunday Night 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A high temperature near 67. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.

Monday Night 

Cloudy early then becoming Partly cloudy skies. Areas of patchy fog before 4 AM. Low temperature near 55. Southeast winds around 5 MPH.

------‐--------------------------------------------------------------------

NAM another model 

Sunday Night 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 58. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.

Monday Night 

Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast winds around 10 MPH.

Tuesday 

Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain.

Tuesday Night.

Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. 

Wednesday 

Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.

My Forecast 

What isn't listed is the model page of my GFS and compare runs and models to make this forecast. 

Erie PA forecast 

This week is going to include rain showers and fall like temperatures late in the week. Overall a fairly quiet pattern. 

Sunday Night 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday 

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.

Monday Night 

Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast7 winds around 10 MPH.

Tuesday 

Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain.

Tuesday Night.

Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. 

Wednesday 

Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.

The national weather service forecast... 

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind around 7 mph.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind 7 to 10 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind around 8 mph.

Tuesday

A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Showers likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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