Written By Andrew DitchWritten on: September 29, 2024 4:15 PM Updated: September 30, 2024 12:46 PM
Today's Video
Because of my developmental disabilities and autism, I used my Augmentative Alternative Communication Device to make my forecast for more professional and easier to understand information.
Today's Detailed Text
Erie, PA Weather News
Erie PA forecast
This week is going to include rain showers and fall like temperatures late in the week. Overall a fairly quiet pattern.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent. Actual low temperature of 64. East Winds of 5 MPH. Cloudy Weather.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon is correct. Current temperature at 12 PM is 73 and East Northeast at9 MPH so far is correct.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast 7 winds around 10 MPH. Actual Low 64. Mostly cloudy skies. Northeast winds around 7.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain. Weather as of 12 pm. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Current partly sunny. Temperature at 12 pm is 71. South winds 8 to 10.
Tuesday Night.
Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.
How I made this forecast
I wanted to add this information so you can understand how I got Mt forecast. This way you can understand my mind set with this. I am in a group home. I want to show you my special interest. I really hope to keep doing this long term and regularly.
GFS Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM
NAMNST Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM
HHHR Future Radar for Oct 1, 2024 at 3 PM
I used GFS Long Range Forecast Model to help me look at the Long term pattern, the fronts, the colder and warmer air, and national forecast to make my synopsis part.
Then I added this information to the models below. I made my forecast off the information from the HHHR and NAMNST and NAM. My past experiences with forecast models I was able to say I didn't agree with the NAM or NAMNST for tonight forecast. I agree with the HHHR with the GFS and NAM combined. The HHHS was not in agreement with the fine stuff and temps for Monday to Tuesday. So I used the NAM, NAMNST and GFS and RAP models for my Monday, Monday Night, and Tuesday Night. All the models were not in agreement with Tuesday day time weather or temperature.
My Tuesday day time forecast I went to my local NWS page and I got more confused by another input. I didn't know what to do. So I remembered that weather.cod.edu uses on the legacy site the compre models and run times. I used that to make my forecast based on that. Also, to see if I was right and to help me learn.
HHHR this is one forecast model
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A high temperature near 67. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.
Monday Night
Cloudy early then becoming Partly cloudy skies. Areas of patchy fog before 4 AM. Low temperature near 55. Southeast winds around 5 MPH.
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 58. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast winds around 10 MPH.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday Night.
Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.
My Forecast
What isn't listed is the model page of my GFS and compare runs and models to make this forecast.
Erie PA forecast
This week is going to include rain showers and fall like temperatures late in the week. Overall a fairly quiet pattern.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. A Low temperature near 62. East Winds of 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower mainly before Noon. Becoming Partly sunny late. A high temperature near 72. Winds out of the East at 5 to 10 MPH becoming South East. Chance of rain is 30 Percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low temperature near 60. Southeast7 winds around 10 MPH.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny skies becoming Partly cloudy late in the day. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 4 PM. High temperature near 70. South winds around 10 to 15 MHP. A 30 percent chance of rain.
Tuesday Night.
Mostly cloudy with a shower and chance of a thunderstorm before 3 AM. Then slight chance of a shower and becoming Partly cloudy. Low temperature near 54. South winds from 10 to 16 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH becoming Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy skies. Early high near 60 with falling temperature to 50 late.
The national weather service forecast...
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind around 7 mph.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind 7 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind around 8 mph.
Tuesday
A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Written By Andrew DitchWritten on: September 11, 2024 9:54 PM EDT Updated: September 11, 2024 10:30 PM EDT
Record Breaking Tornadoes for New York State
Map of New York - 29 Tornadoes from February to September 2024
You know 29 tornadoes in NYS is something else. That shows tornadoes can happen anywhere and no tornado should be taken lightly or believing tornadoes don't happen in mountains or by lakes or in colder regions. It can happen any time of the year and any location. Proof is in this map. I love weather so much because I have found a special interests all because my first time watching Tornadoes on TV at age 5 I have always obsessed by weather. The reason I love Tornadoes is I don't know. I have autism spectrum disorder and thunderstorms hurt my ears and my eyes. They cause me emotional discomfort and panic. I hit my head in thunderstorms from this. I been told by friends who are storm chasers that Tornadoes are louder than thunder. I would never be able to cope with a tornado. The reason I love Tornadoes is because I love how they spin, form, and move. Something about seeing a finger fall out of the sky spinning around makes me obsessed. For this reason I want to learn about weather and facts that I love going around telling people. It's part of my autism diagnosis.
So it's my obsession and I want to share the information that could save your life. 29 Tornadoes in a area that don't see this many Tornadoes has me wondering. How many people believe that a tornado can't happen in cold areas? How many people believe a mountain can keep you safe from a tornado. How many people believe Tornadoes don't hit large Cities. You know how wrong you are? If you believe this you might have a mental disorder with your delusion. But I don't blame you for believing this. Especially when just 5 to 10 years ago we had false tornado warnings. Just over 10 years ago if a thunderstorm was producing a tornado, the entire county was under the warning. Technology wasn't able to deliver specific part of a county to warn only effected towns. Not to mention that radar and warning technologies wasn't able to know localized or small scale severe weather. Let alone Technology didn't allow meteorologist a better understanding of how and why Tornadoes form and what thunderstorms and environment makes a tornado when similar environments don't produce Tornadoes. With faster computers with better graphics meteorologist was able to put together forecast similartors and modules that helped discover new information that wasn't known before about Tornadoes and the winds inside a tornado. Plus how pressure changes and very small scale changes in temperature and winds and pressure environments formed Tornadoes. This also helped the better understanding of how thunderstorms move and suddenly change direction. The May 31, 2014 El Reno tornado that killed 4 storm chasers because the sudden change in direction, size, and speed of the deadly EF5 tornado wasn't understood why they are so unpredictable. Now we understand pressure changes near and in the thunderstorm causes the storm to turn right. In the last 2 years meteorologist have been able to discover information on what actual is needed to form a tornado and why not all super cells produce Tornadoes.
This can help make you more comfortable with changing your day when an unexpected tornado warning is issued. Especially when we have a better understanding of storms and how we can detect and forecast the impacts of severe weather. Especially when we all know mountain can enhance wind sheer and lift two main ingredients for Tornadoes. And now recently record Breaking amount of Tornadoes in NYS.
Not to mention how much better Hurricane warnings have made it more possible to detect rapid intensifying storms and better Strom impact and flooding that the public has better understanding and trust in the hard work the NWS put in making better forecast and warnings to support NOAA mission statement to protect life and property.
I encourage you to learn more about weather safety by visiting www.weather.gov/wrn. I also would like you to know how you can get updated weather forecast by downloading The Weather Channel App and by visiting www.weather.gov to get updated weather forecast 24 hours 7 days a week. The National Weather Service has no vacations or holidays so they provide the public with the most updated forecast when new information is available. With Technology today, meteorologist receives new data every second of the day allowing them to constantly make changes to local weather forecast.
Thank you for your time in being entertained by today's content. Please we want to hear from you on ways to improve your experience on being a loyal viewer. Please Contact Us on ways to better our content for everyone. No one's voice goes unheard by me! Keep watching and please subscribe to our Channel and YouTube and all Social Media Platforms to stay updated on today's never ending changing weather. Please comment in the comments below. Stay tuned to the answer to today's trivia question tomorrow!
